Predict This: Polymarket pulls nuclear detonation market
The Signal Polymarket quietly pulled/archived its “nuclear weapon detonation” market after it drew roughly $650K–$850K in volume—an unusually fast reversal...
Predict This: Polymarket, Kalshi tighten rules after backlash
The Signal Polymarket and Kalshi are both tightening their rulebooks—fast—after a week where “sensitive” geopolitics contracts produced record volume and the...
Predict This: CFTC signals prediction market rulemaking
The Signal The CFTC is telegraphing a shift from case-by-case fights to formal rulemaking for event contracts—and that’s a direct threat to the industry’s...
Predict This: Kalshi defends Khamenei market, refunds fees
The Signal Kalshi is trying to turn a reputational fire into a product/compliance narrative. After backlash over its Khamenei-related contract, CEO Tarek...
Predict This: Polymarket hits $478M amid scrutiny
The Signal Polymarket just printed a $478M single-day notional volume record—and the spike is now inseparable from a reputational/regulatory stress test...
Predict This: States introduce new prediction market bills
The Signal State lawmakers are now writing prediction-market-specific bills instead of relying on ad hoc gambling enforcement—and that’s a meaningful...
Predict This: Kalshi sues Utah over state crackdown
The Signal Kalshi escalated its state-by-state distribution fight this week by suing Utah officials in federal court to block an anticipated crackdown under...
Predict This: Senate presses CFTC on market limits
The Signal Senate Democrats are trying to force the CFTC to draw explicit red lines that would function as de facto “market limits” on what prediction...
Predict This: Kalshi cracks down on insider trading
The Signal Kalshi is trying to turn “insider trading” from an existential PR risk into a compliance differentiator. This week the CFTC-regulated exchange...
Predict This: Nevada sues Kalshi over sports contracts
The Signal Nevada just escalated its fight with Kalshi from cease-and-desist politics into a venue-setting lawsuit aimed at classifying Kalshi’s sports event...
Predict This: States challenge CFTC on prediction markets
The Signal State gaming regulators are trying to reassert control over prediction markets just as the CFTC is moving to publicly “box them out.” Over the...
Predict This: Tennessee judge blocks action against Kalshi
The Signal Kalshi just won its cleanest state-level preemption shot yet—and it’s a playbook, not a one-off. A federal judge in Tennessee granted Kalshi a...
Predict This: Substack partners with Polymarket
The Signal Polymarket just bought itself a new distribution surface: Substack’s highest-intent news and analysis feeds. This week, Substack and Polymarket...
Predict This: Vitalik warns Polymarket’s market direction
The Signal Vitalik Buterin just put Polymarket’s growth strategy on notice — and it lands as “sports-first” liquidity becomes the industry’s volume engine....
Predict This: Tradeweb partners with Kalshi
The Signal Tradeweb just became Kalshi’s first real TradFi distribution wedge. On Thursday, the fixed-income e-trading giant signed a partnership to display...
Predict This: Nevada sues to block Kalshi
The Signal Nevada has moved from threat to injunction posture against Kalshi, filing suit in state court to block the platform from offering sports-linked...
Predict This: CFTC escalates fight over prediction markets
The Signal The CFTC just shifted from watching the prediction-markets jurisdiction fight to litigating it—publicly and aggressively. Chair Michael Selig...
Predict This: DraftKings doubles down on prediction markets
The Signal DraftKings is no longer treating prediction markets as a defensive experiment—it’s pitching them as a core, multi-business-line growth wedge...
Predict This: Polymarket hit by alleged insider bets
The Signal Polymarket just took its most concrete “insider trading” reputational hit yet: Israeli prosecutors allege a military reservist and a civilian used...
Predict This: Robinhood touts prediction market “supercycle”
The Signal Robinhood is no longer treating prediction markets as a novelty add-on—it’s positioning them as a core growth engine, with CEO Vlad Tenev calling...