Predict This: Ninth Circuit weighs Nevada ban on Kalshi
The Signal Kalshi’s state-by-state expansion strategy just hit its sharpest legal edge case: a Ninth Circuit panel appeared sympathetic to Nevada’s claim...
Predict This: Schwab weighs entering prediction markets
The Signal Charles Schwab is “taking a hard look” at adding prediction markets—explicitly framed as financial-event contracts, not politics or sports. On its...
Predict This: Washington ramps prediction market scrutiny
The Signal Washington’s scrutiny of prediction markets is now converging on a single operational demand: prove you can police market abuse at scale, or...
Predict This: CFTC chair claims exclusive prediction authority
The Signal The CFTC is trying to lock in federal preemption as the operating model for U.S. prediction markets. In an interview with CoinDesk, CFTC Chair...
Predict This: Robinhood restricts markets over manipulation fears
The Signal Robinhood is now explicitly excluding certain prediction markets from its product menu over manipulation and insider-trading risk—turning “what we...
Predict This: DealFlow launches prediction markets conference
The Signal DealFlow Events is productizing the prediction-markets industry into a sellable “category” by launching PREDICT: The Prediction Markets...
Predict This: Robinhood tightens prediction market listings
The Signal Robinhood is tightening which prediction markets it’s willing to list—explicitly screening out contracts that could be gamed via manipulation or...
Predict This: Judge pauses Arizona case against Kalshi
The Signal Kalshi just bought itself time—and, more importantly, a stronger distribution narrative—after a federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona from...
Predict This: Kalshi takes 89% of US market
The Signal Kalshi is now taking an estimated 89% share of measured U.S. prediction-market volume—an abrupt concentration that makes “regulated rails” the...
Predict This: Lawmakers seek probe of Polymarket bets
The Signal Polymarket just got pulled deeper into Washington’s “market integrity” crosshairs—this time via a lawmaker letter pressing the CFTC to review...
Predict This: Binance adds prediction markets to app
The Signal Bin-ance just turned prediction markets into a default surface inside one of the world’s largest trading apps. CoinDesk reports Bin-ance has...
Predict This: Appeals court backs CFTC over Kalshi
The Signal A Third Circuit panel just handed Kalshi (and the CFTC) the cleanest appellate validation yet of the “federal-only” theory for regulated event...
Predict This: Kalshi forecasts to run on Fox News
The Signal Kalshi just bought itself national distribution: Fox Corp will integrate “Kalshi forecasts” across Fox News Channel, Fox Business, Fox Weather,...
Predict This: Polymarket pulls Iran rescue markets
The Signal Polymarket pulled its Iran rescue-related markets after a rapid backlash cycle that moved from social outrage to explicit congressional...
Predict This: ICE puts $2B into Polymarket
The Signal Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has put ~$2B into Polymarket—reportedly structured as a $600M cash investment that “fulfills” a larger $2B...
Predict This: Polymarket signs LaLiga partnership deal
The Signal Polymarket just signed a multi-year commercial partnership with LaLiga covering the U.S. and Canada—another step in its strategy to buy mainstream...
Predict This: CFTC sues Illinois over prediction markets
The Signal The CFTC just escalated the state-by-state crackdown into a federal preemption fight—suing Illinois (alongside Arizona and Connecticut) to block...
Predict This: Paradigm builds prediction markets terminal
The Signal Paradigm is building a prediction markets trading terminal aimed squarely at pro traders and market makers—effectively a “Bloomberg for event...
Predict This: JPMorgan weighs entering prediction markets
The Signal JPMorgan just floated the most important “TradFi maybe” in the prediction markets cycle so far: Jamie Dimon says the bank could one day offer...
Predict This: NFL presses Kalshi, Polymarket on markets
The Signal The NFL just tried to redraw the product boundary for U.S. sports event contracts—pressing Kalshi and Polymarket to stop listing “manipulable”...