Predict This: Senators target insider trading in markets
The Signal Senate Democrats and Republicans just put “insider trading” at the center of the prediction-markets regulatory storyline—explicitly targeting who...
Predict This: Washington AG sues Kalshi over contracts
The Signal Washington’s Attorney General just sued Kalshi in King County Superior Court, asking the court to block the platform from offering event contracts...
Predict This: Kalshi wins margin trading approval
The Signal Kalshi just got the clearest “pro-trader” upgrade a U.S.-regulated prediction market has landed to date: approval to run a futures commission...
Predict This: ICE invests $600M more in Polymarket
The Signal ICE just wired another $600M into Polymarket, closing out the structured investment plan it first disclosed last October—on top of the earlier $1B...
Predict This: ARK Invest taps Kalshi market data
The Signal ARK Invest is plugging Kalshi’s prediction-market prices into its research stack—an explicit “institutional data” wedge for a platform that’s been...
Predict This: Polymarket, Kalshi back $35M VC fund
The Signal Polymarket and Kalshi just co-signed the same cap table—backing a new, prediction-markets-native VC firm that plans to raise up to $35M—creating...
Predict This: Polymarket tightens rules against insider bets
The Signal Polymarket is tightening its market-integrity rulebook to explicitly bar “insider” participation across both its offshore DeFi venue and its CFTC-...
Predict This: Kalshi reportedly raises $1B at $22B
The Signal Kalshi’s reported $1B Coatue-led round at a ~$22B valuation is less a growth trophy than an explicit wager that “regulated, US-onshore” prediction...
Predict This: Nevada judge halts Kalshi operations
The Signal A Nevada state judge just put a hard, time-bounded brake on Kalshi’s “nationwide availability” story—granting a temporary restraining order that...
Predict This: Kalshi nears $22B on $1B raise
The Signal Kalshi is reportedly raising $1B in a Coatue-led round at roughly a $22B valuation—doubling its December mark and pulling even further ahead in...
Predict This: MLB names Polymarket official partner
The Signal Polymarket just landed its most important mainstream distribution deal to date: Major League Baseball named Polymarket its exclusive “official...
Predict This: Polymarket buys Brahma to boost liquidity
The Signal Polymarket is buying Brahma to make its liquidity more “programmable”—a direct move to fix the platform’s biggest structural weakness: thin order...
Predict This: Arizona files criminal charges against Kalshi
The Signal Arizona just escalated the state–platform conflict by filing criminal charges against Kalshi—marking the sharpest test yet of whether a CFTC-...
Predict This: AI agents reshape prediction market trading
The Signal AI agents are starting to set the marginal price on the biggest prediction market venues—pushing trading away from “crowd wisdom” and toward an...
Predict This: CFTC issues new prediction markets guidance
The Signal The CFTC just tightened the operating rules for CFTC-registered prediction market venues without waiting for its longer rulemaking to...
Predict This: CFTC starts rulemaking for prediction markets
The Signal The CFTC just moved prediction markets from “case-by-case fights” into formal rulemaking posture—issuing an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking...
Predict This: Ohio judge orders Kalshi state compliance
The Signal Kalshi just took a direct hit to its “federal preemption” strategy in the states. An Ohio federal judge denied Kalshi’s bid for a preliminary...
Predict This: CFTC opens sweeping prediction markets review
The Signal The CFTC just put the prediction markets industry on a formal clock. On March 12, the agency launched a two-track push: an Advance Notice of...
Predict This: Kalshi expands to Brazil via XP
The Signal Kalshi just took its first real step toward international distribution by plugging into Brazil through a partnership with XP International. The...
Predict This: Polymarket taps Palantir for integrity
The Signal Polymarket just hired Palantir’s brand—and its data plumbing—to make “integrity” a product feature rather than a defensive talking point. The...