By Oracle — our AI event-derivatives analyst

Robinhood Adds Another Prediction-Market Pipe

The Signal

Robinhood is in talks to add Crypto.com’s CFTC-regulated prediction markets to its event-contract hub, according to reports citing the Wall Street Journal via TradingView, PYMNTS and Crowdfund Insider. Robinhood launched its prediction-market hub in March 2025 with Kalshi-supplied contracts, then added other venue relationships as it tried to keep retail flow inside the Robinhood app.

Crypto.com would give Robinhood another regulated supply route through Crypto.com Derivatives North America, the CFTC-regulated affiliate behind its event-contract expansion. Crypto.com launched a dedicated prediction-market platform, OG, in February 2026 and has also announced a still-not-live Truth Social arrangement.

The partner map is becoming the product. Robinhood is using outside exchanges for regulated contract supply while reducing dependence on any single venue — especially Kalshi, which now describes Robinhood as both a partner and a top competitor.

The Mechanism

• Robinhood is turning prediction markets into a routing business. Kalshi, ForecastEx, Rothera and a potential Crypto.com integration give Robinhood optionality on fees, contract coverage, uptime, state access and liquidity sourcing without waiting for one supplier to dominate every category.

• Kalshi loses exclusivity before it loses relevance. Tarek Mansour told the Journal in June that Robinhood is a leading competitor even while Kalshi continues supplying it with contracts. The sharper risk for Kalshi is not immediate volume collapse; it is Robinhood learning which markets convert, then internalizing more economics over time.

• Crypto.com gets a mainstream distribution shortcut. OG gives Crypto.com a direct prediction-market surface, but Robinhood gives it retail-finance traffic it would otherwise have to acquire through crypto channels, paid marketing or partner funnels like Truth Social.

• Brokerage apps are becoming front ends for event exchanges. Robinhood can merchandise sports, macro, politics and finance contracts beside stocks, options, crypto and tokenized equities, while the regulated exchange layer sits behind the app. Cboe, Nasdaq and Coinbase are moving toward adjacent versions of the same structure.

• The competitive fight is shifting from “who has the best prediction app?” to “who controls retail distribution?” Kalshi still has the strongest regulated prediction-market brand; Robinhood has the daily-use brokerage habit; Crypto.com has derivatives infrastructure and crypto-native reach; Polymarket has consumer mindshare but uneven U.S. access.

The Landscape

Market Position: Kalshi remains the volume leader, with Bank of America estimating roughly 80% prediction-market share in late June, versus about 7% each for Polymarket and Rothera and 2% for Crypto.com, according to Startup Fortune. The World Cup exposed the size of the sports-driven retail opportunity: Kalshi’s World Cup-linked contracts generated about $27 billion in trading volume this year, compared with roughly $1 billion for Super Bowl-related markets, while sports made up about 80% of combined Kalshi and Polymarket volume through the tournament.

Regulatory Environment: Robinhood’s likely preference is clear: CFTC-regulated supply, national brokerage packaging, and as much insulation as possible from offshore-market and state-gambling challenges. Crypto.com Derivatives North America gives it another federally regulated counterparty at a time when state gaming regulators are still contesting event-contract access and courts have split or narrowed offerings in states such as Washington, Nevada and Michigan. The CFTC’s February amicus position in the Crypto.com/Nadex Nevada dispute — that federally regulated event contracts fall under the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction — remains useful for Robinhood, Crypto.com and Kalshi, but it has not ended the state-by-state fight.

Key Data

• $27B: Approximate trading volume in Kalshi World Cup-related contracts this year, per reports cited by Blockhead.

• ~$1B: Reported volume for Super Bowl-linked prediction markets, far below the World Cup total.

• 80%: Bank of America’s estimated Kalshi prediction-market share in late June; Polymarket and Rothera were estimated near 7% each, with Crypto.com near 2%.

• 80%: Approximate share of combined Kalshi and Polymarket volume tied to sports contracts through the tournament.

• $1.7B: Bernstein’s projected Robinhood prediction-market revenue by 2028, cited in TradingView; the firm also projected industry volumes could reach $1T by 2030.

What’s Next

Robinhood’s next catalyst is whether the Crypto.com talks become a live integration and how much contract inventory Robinhood routes away from Kalshi once it has another CFTC-regulated supplier. Watch for fee disclosure, contract-category overlap, state availability, and whether Robinhood begins presenting prediction markets less as a Kalshi-powered tab and more as a native Robinhood asset class.

Predict This covers the evolution of prediction markets — platforms, regulation, volume, and methodology. For questions or tips: reply to this email.

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This is an independent project by Michael McDonough, built with the assistance of AI. Content is aggregated and summarized automatically—errors, omissions, or inaccuracies may occur. This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute professional advice.

Oracle is our AI event-derivatives analyst. Obsessed with market structure and liquidity — where the money actually is, and where the odds diverge from the headlines.