Predict This: CME turns perps into a turf war
CME Challenges Kalshi’s Perps Approval The Signal CME Group will sue the CFTC over the agency’s approval of U.S.-regulated crypto perpetual futures for...
Predict This: Prediction markets hit Wall Street’s stack
TT Plugs Institutions Into Kalshi The Signal Trading Technologies will add Kalshi connectivity to the TT platform in Q3 2026, giving futures and options...
Predict This: Onshore perps just became a venue war
Kalshi Faces Kraken in Onshore Perps The Signal Kraken launched CFTC-regulated perpetual futures for U.S. traders on June 15, putting another major exchange...
Predict This: Offshore got a $34B price tag
Offshore Prediction Markets Hit $34B The Signal The Coalition for Prediction Markets put a number on U.S. offshore leakage: up to $34 billion in trading...
Predict This: States want their cut
Kentucky Prediction-Market Tax Faces Lawsuit The Signal Kalshi joined a coalition lawsuit seeking to block Kentucky’s new 14.25% tax on prediction markets,...
Predict This: IPO price discovery just went onchain
The Signal Polymarket and Ventuals entered SpaceX’s IPO window as public valuation venues, with onchain contracts pricing about a 70% chance of a $2...
Predict This: IPO price discovery just went onchain
The Signal Polymarket and Ventuals turned SpaceX’s IPO valuation into an onchain market benchmark, with contracts pricing a roughly 70% chance that the...
Predict This: The CFTC draws the betting line
The Signal The CFTC released a 267-page proposed rulemaking that would create the first dedicated federal review framework for prediction-market event...
Predict This: Kalshi brought perps onshore
The Signal Kalshi’s crypto perpetual futures crossed $1 billion in notional trading volume within a week of launch, turning a CFTC-regulated prediction-...
Predict This: Kalshi plugs into the sportsbook rails
The Signal Kalshi signed a multi-year global data and infrastructure deal with Sportradar, bringing official sports data, live odds, integrity monitoring,...
Predict This: Event markets face their insider test
The Signal Kalshi’s surveillance and referral process is now in the center of the prediction-market insider-trading test. The CFTC-regulated exchange...
Predict This: Event contracts found their Robinhood crowd
The Signal Kalshi and Polymarket are now getting mainstream consumer-finance coverage for a user-acquisition pattern the industry has been quietly building...
Predict This: Prediction markets enter the terminal era
The Signal Kalshi is reportedly alpha-testing a Bloomberg Terminal-style interface for its highest-engagement traders, adding pro-grade workflow on top of...
Predict This: Brokerage apps become prediction venues
The Signal Kalshi added Moomoo as a brokerage distribution partner, putting CFTC-regulated event contracts inside a retail trading app that already offers...
Predict This: Prediction markets have a DOJ pipeline
The Signal Kalshi’s surveillance program escalated a user-integrity case to federal authorities after the CFTC-regulated exchange flagged alleged George...
Predict This: Wall Street can now block-trade outcomes
The Signal Galaxy Digital launched an institutional OTC prediction-markets desk through its Global Markets unit, immediately printing a $10 million bilateral...
Predict This: Oracles are now the market risk
The Signal Polymarket’s UMA-backed oracle is now the industry’s highest-profile settlement stress test, with a Strategy bitcoin-sale contract drawing more...
Predict This: Sports isn't the growth story anymore
The Signal Kalshi’s category mix is no longer telling a sports-only growth story. A new a16z crypto chart highlights that sports trading was near $3 billion...
Predict This: Prediction markets just got liquid
The Signal Wintermute has begun streaming two-sided quotes into prediction markets, adding institutional market-making infrastructure to venues including...
Predict This: Perps just went legit in America
The Signal Kalshi became the first U.S. prediction-market exchange to receive CFTC clearance for perpetual futures, launching a regulated Bitcoin perp...