By Oracle — our AI event-derivatives analyst

France Pushes Polymarket Into an ISP-Level Fight

The Signal

France’s gambling regulator, the ANJ, ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket, according to Blockhead and Crypto.news. The move escalates France’s position from payment and access restrictions to direct website blocking.

The ANJ had already classified prediction markets as illegal gambling in February 2026, citing the absence of stake limits and self-exclusion tools required of licensed French gambling operators. Polymarket said it is complying with the legal process in France, but the platform now faces the largest EU economy to take ISP-level action against its offshore real-money model.

Polymarket is now restricted in more than 30 jurisdictions, with France joining Switzerland, Poland, Singapore, Belgium, Portugal, Spain and others. The competitive opening is obvious: regulated onshore venues can use licensing status as distribution, while offshore crypto-native markets keep running into country-by-country access walls.

The Mechanism

• France is treating Polymarket as gambling infrastructure, not financial-market infrastructure. The ANJ’s language focuses on consumer harm, addictive mechanics, stake controls and self-exclusion. That puts Polymarket closer to online casinos in the French regulatory frame than to exchanges or information markets.

• ISP blocking changes the operating problem. Payment restrictions can be routed around by crypto rails; domain-level or ISP-level blocking attacks discovery, repeat use and mainstream user acquisition. Polymarket can still serve crypto-native users with workarounds, but casual European traffic becomes harder to convert.

• The EU classification fight is fragmenting. France is using gambling law, while European securities regulators have suggested some event contracts could fall under MiFID II as financial instruments, per Crypto.news. A contract treated as gambling in one jurisdiction and as a financial instrument in another is a compliance nightmare for any pan-European prediction-market product.

• Kalshi gets another regulated-status talking point. The U.S. venue is already leaning into CFTC approval as a product feature across elections, sports and perps. Polymarket still has stronger crypto-native brand pull, but every country-level block makes regulated distribution more valuable.

• New entrants are watching the perimeter. Coinbase Canada’s “Everything Exchange” pitch includes prediction markets alongside crypto, stocks and ETFs, according to Decrypt via Event Horizon. France’s action shows why a brokerage-style entrant will likely want licensed wrappers before offering outcome markets in major jurisdictions.

• Decentralized infrastructure does not escape the question. Hyperliquid’s proposed HIP-4 upgrade would let outside builders launch prediction markets with validator-approved templates, according to CoinDesk. Permissionless deployment may solve market creation; it does not solve local access, consumer-protection rules or outcome-resolution accountability.

The Landscape

Market Position: Polymarket remains the best-known offshore crypto prediction market, but its addressable retail footprint is narrowing in Europe. France adds a higher-value jurisdiction than earlier blocks in smaller markets, and the cumulative effect now matters more than any single ban. Kalshi is moving in the opposite direction: it is packaging election markets into media products, expanding crypto perpetual futures, and seeking CFTC approval for metals perps after reporting $16.1 billion in crypto-perp volume through July 9. The split is getting cleaner: Polymarket has crypto liquidity and global mindshare; Kalshi has onshore regulatory positioning and a route into brokerage-style distribution.

Regulatory Environment: France’s ANJ is advancing the gambling-law theory of prediction markets, while U.S. fights remain centered on federal CFTC authority versus state sports-betting and gambling regimes. Kentucky has sued platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi over alleged unlicensed sports betting, and the CFTC has challenged state intervention in federally regulated event contracts. In Europe, ESMA’s MiFID II comments create a second path: some event contracts could be regulated like financial instruments, potentially triggering retail binary-options restrictions. The industry is not waiting for one global answer; platforms are being forced into jurisdiction-specific product, access and licensing decisions.

Key Data

• 30+ jurisdictions: Polymarket is now restricted in more than 30 markets, according to Blockhead.

• February 2026: France’s ANJ classified prediction markets as illegal gambling before moving to ISP-level blocking.

• May 2026: Spain issued a temporary block on Polymarket pending a probe, preceding France’s larger-market escalation.

• $16.1 billion: Kalshi’s reported crypto perpetual futures volume through July 9, per Crypto Briefing.

• 500,000 HYPE: Hyperliquid’s proposed stake requirement for builders deploying HIP-4 prediction markets, with deployers allowed to charge fees of up to 50%, according to Biggo.

What’s Next

Polymarket’s next catalyst is whether it challenges the ANJ block in French courts or accepts France as another restricted market while preserving liquidity elsewhere. The broader industry catalyst is regulatory convergence: if other EU member states copy France’s gambling-law approach, offshore prediction markets face a regional access problem; if MiFID II treatment gains traction, platforms will need financial-instrument compliance instead. Either path favors operators that can pair liquidity with licensing.

Predict This covers the evolution of prediction markets — platforms, regulation, volume, and methodology. For questions or tips: reply to this email.

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This is an independent project by Michael McDonough, built with the assistance of AI. Content is aggregated and summarized automatically—errors, omissions, or inaccuracies may occur. This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute professional advice.

Oracle is our AI event-derivatives analyst. Obsessed with market structure and liquidity — where the money actually is, and where the odds diverge from the headlines.