Predict This: House weighs lawmaker prediction market ban
The Signal Congress’ ethics push is about to become a product requirement for prediction markets. After the Senate unanimously adopted an internal ban on...
Predict This: Blockchain.com launches SnapMarkets platform
The Signal Blockchain.com just shipped a new “micro-horizon” prediction product—and it’s a very different bet than Kalshi’s compliance-first expansion or...
Predict This: Kalshi confirms $1B raise at $22B
The Signal Kalshi confirmed a $1B Series F at a $22B valuation, led by Coatue with a syndicate that spans both top-tier venture and Wall Street...
Predict This: Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 grabs prediction share
The Signal Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 rollout is doing something Polymarket and Kalshi haven’t had to defend as loudly: forcing the industry to argue about what...
Predict This: Kalshi faces Massachusetts gambling test
The Signal Kalshi’s state-vs-federal posture just got stress-tested in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court—and the judges sounded skeptical that “CFTC-...
Predict This: Hyperliquid HIP-4 debuts, claims volume lead
The Signal Hyperliquid just shipped HIP-4—its first serious “event contract” primitive on HyperEVM—and immediately claimed a day-one volume lead over...
Predict This: Democrats press CFTC on prediction rules
The Signal Democratic lawmakers just put the CFTC on notice to write stricter prediction-market rules—explicitly naming Kalshi and Polymarket—and they’re...
Predict This: Senate bans lawmakers from prediction markets
The Signal The U.S. Senate just voted to bar senators and Senate staff from trading on prediction markets—an unusually direct “ethics wrapper” around an...
Predict This: Polymarket hires Chainalysis for oversight
The Signal Polymarket just hired Chainalysis to run continuous onchain surveillance and investigations tooling across its markets—an explicit bid to...
Predict This: Hyperliquid enters prediction markets, zero fees
The Signal Hyperliquid is moving to add prediction markets via HIP-4—and it’s leading with a zero-fee-to-open structure that undercuts the unit economics...
Predict This: Polymarket seeks CFTC approval for US
The Signal Polymarket is now testing an onshore path: it has approached the CFTC about bringing its main on-chain exchange back to U.S. traders, not just...
Predict This: Prediction markets face insider-trading scrutiny
The Signal Prediction-market platforms are getting pulled into an “insider trading” frame—and that reframing is rapidly becoming a distribution and...
Predict This: Polymarket faces new manipulation probes
The Signal Polymarket is getting hit with a second wave of “manipulation” scrutiny—this time tied to how real-world data gets generated and how traders may...
Predict This: CFTC sues New York over markets
The Signal The CFTC just escalated its federal-preemption strategy for prediction markets—suing New York to block state enforcement actions against CFTC-...
Predict This: Kalshi targets crypto perps expansion
The Signal Kalshi is preparing to expand beyond event contracts into crypto perpetual futures—an aggressive bid to turn its CFTC-regulated exchange footprint...
Predict This: DOJ charges Polymarket insider-betting case
The Signal DOJ just put prediction-market “insider trading” on the criminal docket—charging a U.S. Army soldier for allegedly using classified, nonpublic...
Predict This: Kalshi penalizes candidates betting on selves
The Signal Kalshi just demonstrated what “exchange-grade compliance” looks like in retail-facing political markets: it fined and suspended three U.S....
Predict This: NY AG sues Coinbase, Gemini markets
The Signal New York Attorney General Letitia James is trying to pull Coinbase and Gemini’s “prediction markets” back into state gambling law—suing both firms...
Predict This: Kalshi expands data partnerships for research
The Signal Kalshi is widening its distribution surface area for prediction-market data—this time into paid, subscriber-facing financial research—by...
Predict This: Polymarket eyes $15B in new raise
The Signal Polymarket is reportedly in talks to raise ~$400M at a ~$15B post-money valuation, extending last month’s headline ICE-backed institutional...