Predict This: States want their cut
Kentucky Prediction-Market Tax Faces Lawsuit The Signal Kalshi joined a coalition lawsuit seeking to block Kentucky’s new 14.25% tax on prediction markets,...
Predict This: IPO price discovery just went onchain
The Signal Polymarket and Ventuals entered SpaceX’s IPO window as public valuation venues, with onchain contracts pricing about a 70% chance of a $2...
Predict This: IPO price discovery just went onchain
The Signal Polymarket and Ventuals turned SpaceX’s IPO valuation into an onchain market benchmark, with contracts pricing a roughly 70% chance that the...
Predict This: The CFTC draws the betting line
The Signal The CFTC released a 267-page proposed rulemaking that would create the first dedicated federal review framework for prediction-market event...
Predict This: Kalshi brought perps onshore
The Signal Kalshi’s crypto perpetual futures crossed $1 billion in notional trading volume within a week of launch, turning a CFTC-regulated prediction-...
Predict This: Kalshi plugs into the sportsbook rails
The Signal Kalshi signed a multi-year global data and infrastructure deal with Sportradar, bringing official sports data, live odds, integrity monitoring,...
Predict This: Event markets face their insider test
The Signal Kalshi’s surveillance and referral process is now in the center of the prediction-market insider-trading test. The CFTC-regulated exchange...
Predict This: Event contracts found their Robinhood crowd
The Signal Kalshi and Polymarket are now getting mainstream consumer-finance coverage for a user-acquisition pattern the industry has been quietly building...
Predict This: Prediction markets enter the terminal era
The Signal Kalshi is reportedly alpha-testing a Bloomberg Terminal-style interface for its highest-engagement traders, adding pro-grade workflow on top of...
Predict This: Brokerage apps become prediction venues
The Signal Kalshi added Moomoo as a brokerage distribution partner, putting CFTC-regulated event contracts inside a retail trading app that already offers...
Predict This: Prediction markets have a DOJ pipeline
The Signal Kalshi’s surveillance program escalated a user-integrity case to federal authorities after the CFTC-regulated exchange flagged alleged George...
Predict This: Wall Street can now block-trade outcomes
The Signal Galaxy Digital launched an institutional OTC prediction-markets desk through its Global Markets unit, immediately printing a $10 million bilateral...
Predict This: Oracles are now the market risk
The Signal Polymarket’s UMA-backed oracle is now the industry’s highest-profile settlement stress test, with a Strategy bitcoin-sale contract drawing more...
Predict This: Sports isn't the growth story anymore
The Signal Kalshi’s category mix is no longer telling a sports-only growth story. A new a16z crypto chart highlights that sports trading was near $3 billion...
Predict This: Prediction markets just got liquid
The Signal Wintermute has begun streaming two-sided quotes into prediction markets, adding institutional market-making infrastructure to venues including...
Predict This: Perps just went legit in America
The Signal Kalshi became the first U.S. prediction-market exchange to receive CFTC clearance for perpetual futures, launching a regulated Bitcoin perp...
Predict This: Prediction markets get a federal shield
The Signal The CFTC’s prediction-market rule proposal has moved into the White House orbit, with the administration publicly backing the agency’s claim to...
Predict This: Insider-trading law hits prediction markets
The Signal Polymarket just became the venue in a new federal insider-trading prosecution, with SDNY charging Google engineer Michele Spagnuolo over allegedly...
Predict This: Gambling law is eating distribution
The Signal Indonesia’s communications and digital ministry blocked access to Polymarket, classifying the platform as illegal online gambling rather than a...
Predict This: Spain blocks Polymarket, Kalshi access
The Signal Spain just forced a distribution reset for two of the category leaders: Polymarket and Kalshi were blocked nationwide as Spain’s Consumer Rights...